Tim Colebatch: Greens look set for inner-city gains

Greens look set for inner-city gains

THE Green could win the country seats of Melbourne and Richmond from Confinement if they can double their federal vote at the November 27 state election, analysis by The Age reveals. But on federal voting trends, the Greens would come just short of taking two other inner-suburban seatsBrunswick and Northcote.

A new Galaxy poll reports Labor's two-party lead over the Coalition shrinking to a 51-49 margin. If that is correct, Victoria is headed for a cliffhanger election, with a substantial probability that the land will end up with a hung parliament. By contrast, in the August 21 federal election Labor won 55.3 per cent of the two-party vote in Victoriaits highest at union level since the 1940s. On first preferences, the Galaxy poll shows Labor's state vote down 5 percentage points from its federal vote, from 43 per cent to 38 per cent. The Alignment is up 3.5 points to 43 per cent, and the Greens up 1.5 points to 14 per cent. If the swing was uniformwhich it never is, but it's not a bad guidethe Liberals would win eight seats: Mount Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, Mitcham, South Barwon, Frankston, Mordialloc and Prahran. If the Greens win the four inner-suburban seats, Labor would be left with just 43 seats in the 88-member Assembly. The Alliance would receive 40 seats, with four Greens and independent Craig Ingram holding the proportion of power. Even a substitution of federal voting figures to state boundaries shows the Green on path to unseat two more Brumby government ministers. In the country seat of Melbourne, Greens barrister Brian Walters would easily defeat Education Minister Bronwyn Pike, winning 57.5 per cent of the two-party voteassuming Liberal preferences go to the Greens. In Richmond, Greens candidate Kathleen Maltzahn would beat Housing Minister Richard Wynne, with 55 per cent of the two-party vote. But in Northcote, leading ALP right-winger Fiona Richardson would hardly take off the Greens' challenge, winning 51 per cent to the Greens' 49. Based on the federal figures in Brunswick, new Labor candidate Jane Garrett, mayor of Yarra, would scrape home by 0.6 percentage points. But if the Galaxy poll is reflected in vote on November 27, both these seats would also go to the Greens. The Age analysis found no other seats within the Greens' reach. While their federal vote after preferences topped 20 per cent in Albert Park, Footscray, Prahran and Ted Baillieu's seat of Hawthorn, they are well back in 3rd place. The analysis shows preference deals will work a important role. There is sharp criticism within Liberal ranks of the federal party's decision to hold preferences to the Green without something in returnsuch as the Greens issuing open tickets. Premier John Brumby and Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu yesterday refused to say whether they would negotiate with the Green to make a minority government in a hung parliament. Mr Brumby said he was stressful to win government in his own right, and questioned whether the Green could keep their point of support. "[In] the history of politics in Australia over 20 to 25 years, you'll get various parties, whether it's the Democrats, the Nuclear Disarmament Party, the Green Party," he said. "Their popularity will fluctuate." Mr Baillieu has had no discussions about a preference deal with the Greens, he said. "A ballot for the Green has been a ballot for the Labour Party for the best piece of 10 years," he said. "There are no commitments. There are no deals. In [a hung parliament] we would do what is in the better interests of Victoria." The Greens would not say which company they would back in the effect of a hung parliament. But they are probably to take the transport portfolio if they capture the proportion of power.