Greens look set for inner-city gains - State News - Agribusiness .

THE Green could win the country seats of Melbourne and Richmond from Confinement if they can double their federal vote at the November 27 state election, analysis by The Age reveals.

But on federal voting trends, the Greens would come just short of taking two other inner-suburban seats - Brunswick and Northcote.

A new Galaxy poll reports Labor's two-party lead over the Coalition shrinking to a 51-49 margin.

If that is correct, Victoria is headed for a cliffhanger election, with a substantial probability that the state will end up with a hung parliament.

By contrast, in the August 21 federal election Labor won 55.3 per cent of the two-party vote in Victoria - its highest at union level since the 1940s.

On first preferences, the Galaxy poll shows Labor's state vote down 5 percentage points from its federal vote, from 43 per cent to 38 per cent. The Alignment is up 3.5 points to 43 per cent, and the Greens up 1.5 points to 14 per cent.

If the cut was uniform - which it never is, but it's not a bad guide - the Liberals would make eight seats: Mount Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, Mitcham, South Barwon, Frankston, Mordialloc and Prahran.

If the Greens win the four inner-suburban seats, Labor would be left with just 43 seats in the 88-member Assembly. The Alliance would receive 40 seats, with four Greens and independent Craig Ingram holding the rest of power.

Even a switch of federal voting figures to state boundaries shows the Green on course to unseat two more Brumby government ministers.

In the country seat of Melbourne, Greens barrister Brian Walters would easily defeat Education Minister Bronwyn Pike, winning 57.5 per cent of the two-party vote - assuming Liberal preferences go to the Greens.

In Richmond, Greens candidate Kathleen Maltzahn would beat Housing Minister Richard Wynne, with 55 per cent of the two-party vote.

But in Northcote, leading ALP right-winger Fiona Richardson would only take off the Greens' challenge, winning 51 per cent to the Greens' 49. Based on the federal figures in Brunswick, new Labor candidate Jane Garrett, mayor of Yarra, would scrape home by 0.6 percentage points. But if the Galaxy poll is reflected in vote on November 27, both these seats would also go to the Greens.